How Operators & Insurers Navigate Rising Geopolitical Risks
This article was originally published in the January 2026 issue of Jetstream.
In an era marked by escalating geopolitical tensions, the aviation industry faces operational and financial pressures on multiple fronts.
Armed conflict in the Middle East, attacks at the borders of India/Pakistan and Thailand/Cambodia, civil war in Myanmar and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have compelled airlines to reroute flights around prohibited airspace or make Flight Information Region (FIR) overflight adjustments. Rerouting through ever-changing flight corridors not only adds additional pressure on airline resources but also amplifies risk for insurers, who must recalibrate coverage amid heightened exposure to volatile regions.
Too often in recent memory, misidentification shootdown risk has resulted in the tragic loss of life. With these lessons at the forefront of airspace and operational risk management, when conflict elevates the threat to safe operation of aircraft, decision makers are quick to react.
Redrawing the Map: Rerouting Becomes the Norm
Recent armed conflicts have redrawn global flight paths, driving flight planning toward circumvention. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, commercial airlines have altered flight paths to limit exposure to, or avoid altogether, large sections of Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian airspace. Rerouting has become the norm, not the exception.
Similarly, disruptions to airspace over the Middle East prompted diversions around the Arabian Peninsula, affecting Europe-Asia corridors. In June 2025, India-Pakistan border tensions further closed key overflight zones, extending flights between Europe
and Southeast Asia.
Operational Burdens and Emerging Threats
The immediate impact of hostility often results in disrupted schedules, extended flight durations, complexities in crew flight time limitation and cascading delays across networks, all at the cost of increased fuel consumption. These adjustments, while essential for safety, come with significant financial implications for operators.
For insurers, the proliferation of no-fly zones elevates underwriting complexities. Operators and insurers must also navigate emerging threats, such as GPS jamming near conflict zones. One carrier alone logged over 2,500 GPS spoofing and jamming reports, half from just five FIRs.
The result is a continuously evolving recalibration of risk models as more flights transit through narrowing flight corridors with airspace threat and risk assessments limiting diversion options.
Compounding Pressures: Delivery Delays and Aging Fleets
Adding to the financial impact of these challenges are persistent delays in new aircraft deliveries, as reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), forcing carriers to operate older, less efficient fleets. Globally, IATA projects that conflict-driven rerouting will erode airline profitability, exacerbating a forecasted net profit margin of just 3.6%. Beyond fuel, indirect costs include revenue dilution from reduced payload capacity on longer routes.
Supply chain bottlenecks, intensified by post-pandemic recovery and labour shortages, have delayed aircraft deliveries by 30% below peak levels, swelling the order backlog to a record 17,000 units as of June 2025. IATA’s Global Outlook for Air Transport warns that these constraints will persist into 2026, limiting fleet renewal and compelling airlines to extend the service life of older models. The average global fleet age has climbed to 14.8 years—the highest on record—up from 13 years in 2018, as retirements of fuel-thirsty aircraft are deferred.
This aging exacerbates rerouting costs, as legacy planes consume 15-20% more fuel than their modern counterparts.
IATA data indicates that carriers now operate 20% more flights with aircraft over 15 years old than the pre-2020 baseline.
Source: IATA Sustainability and Economics, Cirium Fleets Analyzer
* retirement rate = retirement events/fleet in service and storage at the beginning of period; renewal rate = delivery events/fleet in service and storage at the beginning of period.
In a sector already grappling with deferred deliveries, these dynamics threaten sustainability goals, with older fleets emitting
up to 20% more CO2 per passenger kilometre.
Navigating Volatility Through Collaboration
The interplay between armed conflict-induced rerouting and protracted aircraft delivery delays presents challenges to airlines and insurers. Yet, through periods of volatility, positive outcomes can emerge. Encouragingly, many operators increased their dialogue with insurers as regional conflict escalated. An operator’s willingness to share their approach to risk management and mitigation serves to positively differentiate itself.
At Global Aerospace, we welcome dialogue and collaboration with clients, as it empowers one of our core values:
“To provide the best insurance products and service to the aviation industry.”
By gaining a deeper understanding of the challenges our clients face, Global Aerospace is better positioned to provide stability
in uncertain times.